Shifting Sands: What the Gaza Ceasefire Means for the Houthis

Basha Report: Yemen’s 2025 Scenarios and Forecasts

At Basha Report, we have been closely monitoring the evolving situation in Yemen and the broader region. This morning, the Houthi official newswire published an editorial asserting that the "Yemeni [Houthi] Armed Forces’ military operations in support of Gaza have bolstered indirect negotiations in Doha, thereby strengthening Palestinian negotiators’ leverage to secure a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal." According to the Houthis, these efforts contribute to halting what they describe as “Zionist aggression and genocide” against the besieged population of the Gaza Strip. They are openly attributing credit to themselves for influencing Israel and its allies to agree to a deal with Hamas.

We assess that the recent escalation by Yemen’s Houthis appears to be a strategic response to emerging regional power dynamics, particularly as Hamas is expected to consider the U.S.-proposed ceasefire and prisoner exchange initiative before the January 20 presidential inauguration. With Israeli leaders indicating a potential willingness to negotiate an agreement, the Houthis appear determined to make their mark before any deal is finalized. From our perspective, this reflects a broader effort to assert their expanding leadership within the so-called “Axis of Resistance” and to emphasize their role in exerting pressure on Israel, particularly given the restrained direct military involvement from Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraq’s Islamic Resistance.

When asked if Yemeni maritime operations and missile or drone strikes on Israel would end after a Gaza ceasefire, a member of the Houthi political bureau replied that