SITREP WADI MADANI SUDAN 17JAN25

Sudan’s Overlooked Crisis Amid Global Focus on Other Conflicts

As the world's attention remains fixed on the crises in Gaza and Ukraine, Sudan’s devastating conflict seems to have faded from the headlines. Outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed this neglect during his final news conference, expressing deep regret over his inability to broker peace in Sudan. “It is for me, yes, another real regret that when it comes to Sudan, we haven't been able on our watch to get to that day of success,” Blinken stated. His remarks coincided with new US sanctions targeting Sudan’s army chief, Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, following similar action against his rival, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as “Hemedti.”

Background

Since April 2023, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Burhan, has been locked in a bloody conflict with the RSF under Hemedti’s command. Over 21 months of fighting have claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced more than 12 million people. Hunger and insecurity now threaten millions more. The United Nations and international organizations estimate at least 20,000 deaths, with some academic research suggesting the toll, including indirect causes, may approach 130,000. Despite repeated diplomatic efforts, the violence continues to engulf 13 of Sudan’s 18 states.

Both the SAF and RSF remain entrenched, locked in a struggle for dominance. The RSF has been accused of atrocities in rural areas, while some of its units have fragmented into smaller militias, making a cohesive peace increasingly elusive. Observers note that these fragmented forces, driven by sectarian and regional interests, exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and further destabilize the nation.

Sudan's conflict has become a focal point for foreign actors seeking to exploit its instability for strategic and economic purposes. Mercenaries and militias from Chad, Libya, and the Central African Republic (CAR) have reportedly aligned with factions like the RSF, drawn by tribal affiliations or financial incentives. Regional militias from the Sahel and rebel groups have also crossed into Sudan, further entangling the conflict with broader regional instability. Additionally, Sudan's porous borders and its role as a hub for arms trafficking have created avenues for external interference, including alleged arms flows from Yemen and Ethiopia.

Major nations have also played influential roles, turning Sudan into a potential proxy battleground. The UAE has faced accusations of arming the RSF, while Egypt, aligned with the SAF, seeks to stabilize the region to control refugee flows and protect Nile River interests. Russia’s Wagner Group reportedly supports the RSF in exchange for access to Sudan's gold reserves. These external influences, combined with rumors of Tigrayan and Houthi involvement, underscore the geopolitical stakes.

Shifting Ground: Developments in Jazeera

In recent days, the SAF has gained some momentum. On Saturday, SAF Field Commander Bassam Abu Sattour announced the army’s entry into Wad Madani, the capital of Jazeera State, after nearly a year under RSF control. The RSF forces reportedly fled the city, marking a significant win for the SAF. Celebrations erupted across the region, with public demonstrations in Atbara, Port Sudan, and Sennar. Sudan’s Minister of Information, Khalid al-Ayesir, praised the army’s success and commended allied forces for their efforts to reclaim critical territories in Jazeera.

Among the SAF’s allies is the Sudan Shield Forces (Der’ al-Sudan), led by Abu Aqla Kikil, a former RSF commander who recently defected to the SAF. Kikil and his forces joined the victory celebrations in Wad Madani, underscoring the shifting allegiances within Sudan’s volatile conflict. However, despite the SAF’s gains, the RSF retains control over much of Jazeera, aside from Wad Madani, Managil, and surrounding areas.

Who is Abu Aqla Kikil

A central figure in this conflict is Abu Aqla Mohamed Ahmed Kikil, who rose to prominence in 2002 as a self-proclaimed Major General in the “Sudan Shield Forces.” Although Kikil briefly served under former President Omar al-Bashir, he later joined the RSF under Hemedti. By late 2023, Kikil had become a key RSF commander, controlling several towns in Jazeera, including Wad Madani, and was appointed governor of the state.

Rumors suggest that Kikil had to prove his loyalty to the SAF before defecting. Allegedly, he orchestrated a critical intelligence operation, reactivating servers at Sudan’s national data center previously under RSF control. This action allowed authorities in Port Sudan to retrieve vital civil registry data and restore the country’s national network, demonstrating Kikil’s strategic value. In October 2024, Kikil formally defected, declaring in a video with SAF soldiers, “The nation comes first.” While the RSF accused him of collaborating with former Bashir regime figures, his defection is widely regarded as an intelligence coup for the SAF.

Strategic Importance of Jazeera

Jazeera State is not just a battlefield; it is an economic and logistical asset. Its agricultural resources and critical trade routes linking central and eastern Sudan make it a prize for both the SAF and RSF. Control over towns like Wad Madani, Rufaa, and Managil gives an advantage in terms of both resources and military operations. However, the prolonged conflict in the region has compounded the humanitarian toll, with millions facing acute food insecurity and disrupted livelihoods.

Broader Implications

The war’s effects extend far beyond Jazeera Nearly half of Sudan’s population—24.6 million people—are now critically food insecure, according to the UN. While temporary humanitarian corridors have been negotiated through joint US-Saudi diplomacy, these agreements have failed to achieve lasting peace or address the root causes of the conflict. As violence persists, the United States has escalated measures by sanctioning both Burhan and Hemedti. The sanctions signal frustration with both leaders’ unwillingness to engage in meaningful peace talks.

Outgoing US Special Envoy Tom Perriello noted the diminished global influence of the United States, which now faces challenges in leveraging sanctions amid alternative funding sources from nations less concerned with governance or human rights. Perriello criticized South Africa for hosting Hemedti without public backlash and praised Egypt’s behind-the-scenes efforts to curb refugee flows from Sudan.

A Crisis at the Brink

With 13 states affected by violence, Sudan’s conflict shows no signs of resolution. Blinken’s admission of “real regret” underscores the deep complexity of the crisis, driven by entrenched rivalries, regional fragmentation, and an eroding international capacity to mediate. While figures like Abu Aqla Kikil and the recapture of Wad Madani hint at potential cracks within the RSF, the broader conflict remains a grim testament to Sudan’s struggle for stability.

Millions remain on the brink of famine, and the need for sustained global pressure to halt hostilities and enable humanitarian aid is more urgent than ever. As the world watches other crises unfold, Sudan’s plight demands renewed attention before its human toll becomes even more catastrophic.