The Last Arab Spring Dictator: Assad's Regime Crumbles
SITREP: As of 6:00 AM local Syrian time, celebrations have erupted in Damascus under the dawn of a new era on December 8, 2024. The rapidly unfolding events signal what many believe is the collapse of the Assad regime. Chaos engulfed Damascus as the airport was abandoned by staff and security, leaving travelers in panic, while soldiers near the Military General Staff Headquarters were seen desperately asking civilians for rides. In key neighborhoods like Maliki, near the Presidential Palace, and Al-Mazzeh, military personnel discarded their uniforms for civilian clothing and fled their posts. Adding to the turmoil, detainees from military police prisons were reportedly released, and gunfire echoed through the city as rebels advanced along the M5 highway, preparing for a decisive entry into the capital.
What brought us to this point? The Assad-led Syrian Arab Army has been plagued by a severe recruitment crisis, exacerbated by the exodus of young Syrians fleeing abroad. This has left the regime unable to replenish its ranks or pay salaries due to dire financial constraints. Over a decade of relentless fighting has drained the army of morale and manpower, leaving its forces depleted and exhausted. Reliance on Russian air support, UAVs, and ammunition has faltered as Moscow redirects resources to the war in Ukraine, resulting in critical shortages of artillery shells, tank munitions, and spare parts for Soviet-era equipment. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, once a key ally, is unable to provide significant reinforcements due to internal struggles in Lebanon and conflicts with Israel. Shia militias from Pakistan and Afghanistan, primarily mercenaries, lack commitment and frequently retreat under pressure. In stark contrast, the rebels, who have spent years methodically and professionally preparing for this confrontation, exhibit a level of coordination and determination the Syrian army cannot match.
Regime Collapse in Just 12 Days: Before the astonishing developments in Damascus, Homs had already fallen to the rebels. Videos emerged showing prisoners being freed from Homs Central Prison, while regime loyalists fled westward to the Latakia Governorate located on the Mediterranean coast. Intelligence officers and security personnel abandoned their posts, and soldiers withdrew with heavy equipment, packing up gear and deserting bases and checkpoints. Thousands of Syrian Republican Guard soldiers defected, with some crossing into Iraq through Al-Qaem. Many of these defectors were later hospitalized for treatment. Despite limited airstrikes targeting supply lines to Homs, the regime appears unable to regain control.
Where is the Bashar? Al-Assad’s absence from public view over the past four days, including his failure to appear during a televised address where a military general spoke on his behalf, has intensified speculation about his fate. Possible scenarios range from detention by his own generals to fleeing to Iraq, Libya, Russia, or the UAE, or preparing for a final stand. As the last remaining Arab Spring leader in power, Assad’s fate is being likened to those of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi, Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Sudan’s Omar Al-Bashir, Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh, and Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak. However, it seems increasingly likely that he has already fled Syria with his family.
What's next? With the rebels consolidating their gains and the regime’s military command in disarray, the collapse of Assad’s rule now appears inevitable. The critical question is how effectively the rebels can establish control and manage the transition of power. The role of various factions—such as the Syrian National Army, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Southern Operations Room, and the HTS-dominated Military Operations Administration—remains unclear. Will Syria follow the path of Libya, descending into prolonged chaos? While many questions linger about the nation's future, one thing seems certain: today likely marks the end of the Assad regime, bringing a historic chapter of Syrian rule to a close.
